Fertility rates in all 50 U.S. states is below the replacement level.

On August 1, 2024 Christine Emba’s article, “The Real Reason People Aren’t Having Kids,” was published on The Atlantic web site. In the article Emba describes the below replacement levels of fertility in developed countries.

Emba writes:

In 1960, American women had, on average, 3.6 children; in 2023, the total fertility rate (the average number of children a woman expects to have in her lifetime) was 1.62, the lowest on record and well below the replacement rate of 2.1. Meanwhile, rates of childlessness are rising: In 2018, more than one in seven women aged 40 to 44 had no biological children, compared with one in 10 in 1976. And according to a new report from Pew Research Center, the share of American adults younger than 50 who say they are unlikely to ever have children rose 10 percentage points between 2018 and 2023, to 47 percent.

Reading Emba’s article lead to me asking if there are differences in fertility rates across the 50 U.S. states and where New York State in particular stands. What I found is that the 5 states with the highest fertility rate in 2022 is South Dakota with a rate of 2.01, followed by Nebraska at 1.94, Alaska at 1.89, Louisiana at 1.85, and Utah at 1.85. The population replacement level is 2.1 children per female between 15 and 42. Even the states with the highest fertility rates are below replacement levels.

The 5 states with the lowest fertility rates are Vermont with 1.35, Oregon with 1.39, Rhode Island with 1.40, New Hampshire with 1.41. And Massachusetts with 1.44.

My state, New York State, is 12th lowest with a rate of 1.56. (For more click here.)

What are the consequences of the people in the various states not replacing their populations? What are the reasons for these low fertility rates? What, if anything, should be done about states and the country maintaining its populations? How has the Covid - 19 pandemic and anxiety over climate change affected these rates?